Test of Market Efficiency
As of 2:45pm today. The Iowa Electronic Markets have the following price quotes for the Presidential Vote Share Contract:
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
KERR 0.497 0.508 0.500 0.495 0.510 0.505
BUKERR 0.482 0.501 0.488 0.485 0.521 0.498
The above might predict the votes share in the popular vote count but it does not give us any indication of the electoral votes allocation.
I can't get through Tradesports.com. Hmmm.
Update: as of 4:11pm: Tradesports.com contracts are also moving towards Kerry:
Candidate: Bid/Ask/Last
PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 48.0 49.5 48.0
PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 51.6 52.0 52.0
Slate.com also has some exit poll numbers showing a narrow Kerry lead.
Update 2: as of 4:28pm
Dow Industrial is down. Closer look will show defense contractors are getting hit (Boeing, United Tech, Honeywell), drug companies too (Merck, Pfizer), and oil (Exxon-Mobil)
Update 3: as of 5:20pm
Biotech stocks are also rallying with expectations of increase in federal funding for stem cell research. One such listed firm: StemCells Inc., it's stock price has been climbing from just $1.46 on July 30, 2004 to $4.28 close of market today. Volume of trading went nuts from just an average of 4.1 million shares daily to 59.7 million today.
Update 4: as of 7:41pm
Perhaps one of the most interesting state ballot initiative: Abolishment of the use of mini-bottles in SC bars: Yes 58 No 42.
Update 5: as of 11:38pm
Not looking good for Kerry. Tradesports.com quotes: Candidate/Bid/Ask/Last
Bush: 73.4/74.5/74
Kerry:27.2/27.5/27.1
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average
KERR 0.497 0.508 0.500 0.495 0.510 0.505
BUKERR 0.482 0.501 0.488 0.485 0.521 0.498
The above might predict the votes share in the popular vote count but it does not give us any indication of the electoral votes allocation.
I can't get through Tradesports.com. Hmmm.
Update: as of 4:11pm: Tradesports.com contracts are also moving towards Kerry:
Candidate: Bid/Ask/Last
PRESIDENT.GWBUSH2004 48.0 49.5 48.0
PRESIDENT.KERRY2004 51.6 52.0 52.0
Slate.com also has some exit poll numbers showing a narrow Kerry lead.
Update 2: as of 4:28pm
Dow Industrial is down. Closer look will show defense contractors are getting hit (Boeing, United Tech, Honeywell), drug companies too (Merck, Pfizer), and oil (Exxon-Mobil)
Update 3: as of 5:20pm
Biotech stocks are also rallying with expectations of increase in federal funding for stem cell research. One such listed firm: StemCells Inc., it's stock price has been climbing from just $1.46 on July 30, 2004 to $4.28 close of market today. Volume of trading went nuts from just an average of 4.1 million shares daily to 59.7 million today.
Update 4: as of 7:41pm
Perhaps one of the most interesting state ballot initiative: Abolishment of the use of mini-bottles in SC bars: Yes 58 No 42.
Update 5: as of 11:38pm
Not looking good for Kerry. Tradesports.com quotes: Candidate/Bid/Ask/Last
Bush: 73.4/74.5/74
Kerry:27.2/27.5/27.1
posted by F @ 6:58 PM
7 Comments:
At 4:26 PM,
Roy Tan said…
Don't the prices represent the *odds* of winning, rather than the actual percent of the popular vote?
At 4:43 PM,
F said…
the payoff structure for the Presidential Vote Share contract follows the resulting vote share (if Kerry bags 52% your Kerry contract payoff is 52 cents)...so it's kind of a combination of the odds and expected votes share at the same time.
At 4:47 PM,
Roy Tan said…
Ah, ok. I was looking at the winner take all market.
At 6:22 PM,
Roy Tan said…
Tradesports now has Kerry at 71.9. Is it over, or is this manipulation? Tradesports and IEM are not very deep markets...
At 7:28 PM,
F said…
yes the markets are very thin. some people speculated Soros was involved when Kerry spiked up after the last debate. the dow movement intrigues me though.
At 11:55 PM,
Roy Tan said…
perhaps this is because CBS has nothing to lose anymore. :-)
At 12:10 AM,
F said…
I think Rather is resigning after the counting is done :)
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